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Strategies & Market Trends : Options for Newbies -(Help Me Obi-Wan-Kenobe)

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To: KFE who wrote (2228)7/20/2004 7:24:21 PM
From: TimF   of 2241
 
The 80% is 1 - An approximation and 2 - only applies to options held to expiration. Since most options are not held to expiration it doesn't give a good feel for your chances of making money buying options unless for some reason you always hold to expiration.

Even then it can give a distorted picture. It makes it seem like holding a long option to expiration is a losing strategy. But this isn't really true overall because often those who have gains from holding long options to options expiration will have gains that exceed the loss of those whose options expire worthless. If you are long options you losses are limited to what you paid for the options, but your gains are in theory not limited, and even in practice if you have a gain its not rare for it to be larger then the amount spent/risked on the option buy.

In other words the 80% figure is in some ways accurate but its not very meaningful.

Tim
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