thanks for following my life's trails so closely
yes, I got hurt in the 2000 bust
now I have learned plenty and upped my game
that is my right with free flow of information, right?
what have you learned in the last 3 years?
I never am called Dr Jim in professional settings
had a business card in mid-80's with PhD on it (not since)
that was my manager's insistence, which I removed later
thanks for not using that as a STRAW DOG, a close call (you danced near that one)
what kind of engineering?
I have always enjoyed learning from engineers in the past
do you learn from others in different disciplines?
or just dictate to them in their fields of expertise?
as my pastor once told me on women
"women should be respected, but never lose sight of the wonderful satisfaction they can provide, like a cool drink of water or a warm meal after a long walk through a dessert area"
wise man, surprised me plenty when I heard that
thanks John (Bolton, Massachusetts)
US Economy is in for trouble, dude (with blinders)
the decade of the 1990's had three things going for it
1. rising USDollar
2. falling interest rates
3. plenty of FtKnox gold to subsidize USTBonds
now all three are in reverse, or had you not noticed?
I have learned a tremendous amount in the last 3 years
here are some correct predictions of mine
this might be over your head
May 2002:
USDollar will decline sharply, but trade gap will stubbornly remain large (100 links)
Aug 2003:
politics will heat up trade war, with Chinese imports the scapegoat (see link, last pgs)
May 2003:
OPEC and Russia will resort to euro pricing for crude oil (see link p.6)
Aug 2003:
Japanese YEN will break out above 87 before late autumn (see link p.3)
Jan 2003:
USGovt economic reporting will lose credibility (see link p.8)
Jan 2003:
terrorist attacks will hit the Saudi homeland, causing instability (see link p.8)
Jan 2004:
USDollar will enjoy a substantial bounce of the DXY=85 double bottom mark
October 2003:
the CRB commodity index will break above 250 imminently (see link)
late June 2003:
USDollar will move from 93-94 to 97, then stall at trendline
Jan 2003:
Federal Reserve monetization efforts will lead to rise in trade gaps, debt levels
Jan 2003:
GSE (FNM,FRE) cracks will be first evidence of mortgage crisis (see link p.10)
July 2002:
gold will rise beyond $340/oz by end of the year 2002
June 2002:
USDollar will fall from 111 to 108, then later hit target of 95-96 (see link)
May 2002:
EURO will rise 20% versus US$ in next 12 months, from 90 to around 110
goldenjackass.com
I am not intimidated by PhD's either, agreed
many of them have trouble tying their shoes
if you were to spend an hour over lunch with me, you would not hold some of your fixed views
I am bothered by physicians, dentists, and optometrists and their insistence on being called Dr
it is offensive and arrogant
they are the only ones I use Dr Jim with, funny really
they ask what my specialty is, and I say "statistics"
I used to be called affectionately in a previous job "DrJ"
we laughed, I never asked for that
it was the Julius Erving era
as for US and land of opportunity, perhaps you should tell the Fortune 1000 about that opportunity
they are not investing in the US, by and large
the direct foreign investment by US firms in China and India and Asia generally is utterly astonishing, and that in the USA is equally astonishing in how small
my God, man, do you read anything?
Detroit has announced the closure of 12 of 60 car mfg plants in the next 3-4 years
they are expanding to Brazil, Philippines, Thailand, China
it is an avalanche of news stories like this which convince me the tide is turning badly against the USA
GM, Ford, Chrysler CEO's and execs consider oppty greater elsewhere
do you read anything?
but then again, I doubt you read about these things
you are probably buried in Bushy and Greenspan economic forecasts and political party promotional pamphlets
there is plenty of opportunity in research, to be sure
we lead in biotech, where I think progress will be great
watch the new frontier in fuel cells though
I predict Japan will take it over entirely
I expect the Japanese market share of hybrid cars inside the USA to be about 60-70%, maybe higher
US is locked into wars to perpetuate dependence on oil & gasoline sadly
opportunity? sure... follow thru, forget it, not here!!!
let's compare notes on my past forecasts and yours
got any from 2002 or 2003?
got any now?
I would be glad to read about them
after all, bragging rights come from a track record
thanks, jim
p.s. sometimes juvenile, yes, but fun for friends, ask them
p.p.s. I spelled a key word above incorrectly just for you
can you spot it? got a quick eye? or just a sharp tongue? |
