Guilford (GLFD) - Steadily Rising Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : Guilford (GLFD) - Steadily Rising

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To: John Dwyer who wrote (65)	8/23/1997 3:15:00 AM
From: Vector1	of 496

<<I think GLFD lost out on too much of the upside potential. John>> With all due respect I diagree. Lets do the math. Word out is that the royalty is high, prob North of 20%. Thus assuming your market size of 2 billion (which is prob conservative) in 5 years or so GLFD could have 20% of 2 billion or $400 million in royalty revenue. Since there is no costs of sales in royalties thats pure profit before taxes. Lets further assume the company is spending big time on R&D so even after Gliadel sales there is a 50 million a year burn. Thus $350 m before taxes and $200 m after taxes. Lets give that $200m AMGN's multiple of about 20 and we are talking a 4 billion valuation and a stock price of about 200. Oh I forgot about the $400 m in payments they recieve. In addition AMGN knows how to get products through the FDA and gives the company excellent exposure. I f these compounds work there is plenty of pie to go around. V1

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