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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group

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To: dumbmoney who wrote (141085)7/22/2004 7:20:33 AM
From: Neocon  Read Replies (1) of 281500
 
Nobody "knows" the future, but we base actions upon reasonable predictions all the time. I am not talking about a remote possibility, I am talking about a high probability.

The only reason there was no current humanitarian crisis was the "no fly" zones. But a humanitarian crisis was looming, as Saddam diverted revenues from oil sales meant to buy the populace necessities, and used them to build palaces and missiles. It is estimated that up to half a million children died as a result of such diversion. How many more needed to die to constitute a crisis?

As for "changing dynamics", of course they factor in as a motive to go to war. For example, if we think that a demonstration of resolve in one place is likely to make diplomacy more effective elsewhere, and therefore to diminish the risk of military confrontation overall, then it is may be worthwhile to "change the dynamic". If there are pressures to proliferate because neighboring countries are afraid of Iraq's capability, a fear which Saddam clearly encouraged, then it is worthwhile to take that pressure off, and decrease the pressure to proliferate. Etc.
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