Can you spell "Jello?" Polipundit
July 25, 2004
Nevada, Iowa, Pennsylvania, and Florida Polls
In the wake of the SurveyUSA poll showing Kerry ahead in Nevada, 49% to 45%, Mason Dixon has released a poll showing President Bush leading 46% to 43%. Meanwhile, in Iowa, which Democrats have carried since 1984, a poll by the Des Moines Register shows that President Bush has eliminated the seven point lead Kerry held after his Iowa caucus victory, and now leads the Massachusetts liberal 46% to 45%.
In Florida, three polls have been released, all of which show President Bush leading John Kerry by a narrow margin. In Pennsylvania, a poll by the Los Angeles Times indicates that Kerry is ahead by ten points, but I believe that a poll by Strategic Vision showing a four point lead is more accurate.
Everyday until the election, with the exception of a week during which I'll be on vacation, there will an update of any state-by-state polling data. This will be a huge undertaking and will require your active participation. Please send me a link to polls you find at the following e-mail address - akmcclure@fastmail.fm.
posted by Alexander K. McClure at 4:29 PM Link to this post | Comments (4)
Three New Ohio Polls
In the past several days, three polls have been released in the critical battleground state of Ohio. Two show President Bush ahead, and one shows John Kerry ahead. This is very good news for the Bush campaign.
Columbus Dispatch: Bush 47%, Kerry 43%, Nader 2%
Strategic Vision: Bush 48%, Kerry 43%, Nader 1%
American Research Group: Bush 45%, Kerry 47%, Nader 3%
The ARG poll, which seems to have a Democratic bias, does show that Bush has closed the gap from the six point lead Kerry held in late June.
Why is Ohio so critical? It has 20 votes in the electoral college, and no Republican has ever been elected President without winning it. (There was a reason why, in the eleven Presidential elections between 1876 and 1920, Republicans nominated Ohioans - Hayes, Garfield, McKinley, Taft, and Harding - seven times. )
polipundit.com |
