mission2000 wrote:
"WF10 -
I been thinking about this ever since the news of wf10 results.Why would the good doctor hang around all this time if he realy did not think that it would not work?You have to remember that this was his lifes work and he would have very strong feelings about the final out come.I think that we could get a pleasant surprise when the mmc takes over.Please let me here some other views on this.thanks!"
stockhouse.ca
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A response was posted Friday morning. Evidently, the response was not acceptable to The Markham Gang, or its supporters. Unacceptable to The Markham Gang?
Worth repeating, then.
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"Why would the good doctor hang around all this time if he realy did not think that it would not work?"
As Dimethaid investors funded most of the Phase 3 trial. Dimethaid acquired progressively larger pieces of Oxo Chemie. As the Phase 3 wrapped up, Dimethaid acquired Oxo Chemie completely.
If you read company documents from that time-frame, you could be forgiven for thinking that Dimethaid Research had acquired a piece of something significant, something quite promising. Four years later, there was no information on the Phase 3. Four years later, Dimethaid investors still knew nothing of the enterprise into which they had poured tens of millions of dollars.
Almost 5 years later, we saw Dr. Kuhne surreptitiously terminated from the board at Oxo Chemie (as part of The Markham Gang's policy on selective disclosure, they failed to inform investors), and the departure of Judith Burgess from Dimethaid Research. Then, finally, as a result of major dissent from shareholders, The Markham Gang produced a mini-version of the Phase 3 results - "independently" confirmed by Oxo Chemie (Wink, wink! Nudge, nudge!) - that said "WF10 failed to meet primary endpoints".
stockhouse.ca
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Among those who believe there's a problem at Dimethaid, there is general agreement as to the primary culprit: poor direction of the company, and the cash starvation that accompanied it.
Poor management resulted in events, such as the Provalis misadventure (with the accompanying multimillion dollar arbitration payments) that cost shareholders dearly. The disastrous effects of PIPE financing resulted in the strangulation of R&D. In general, the company's fate justified the use of the term "death-spiral financing".
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At the AGM, RK was questioned as to what had been accomplished with WF10; at that time she used the words "a few months'" delay. Shareholders began to suspect that the delay was more than "a few months". Shortly after that came the Provalis fiasco, and the MMC broke into the open.
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There's a lot of confusion about the WF10 Phase 3 trial.
Wildflower 10 posted...
stockhouse.ca
It was expected that the advent of HAART would minimize the effect of WF10. This has been posted many times: increasing trial length from 48 weeks to 96 weeks already meant that less than 25% of the total patient population (60 patients) had reached a clinical endpoint after 48 weeks.
"The statistical power of this study is based upon current information regarding survival rates and incidence of AIDS-defining events, which have declined dramatically since the recent introduction of combination antiretroviral drug therapy. In fact, the rate of mortality and clinical progression of HIV disease may continue to decline during the course of the trial. Therefore, the present study is designed to accommodate the possibility that a decrease in frequency of death and AIDS-defining events may reduce statistical power."
This means that the trial attached great importance to secondary endpoints - because they knew before they started that primary endpoints alone would not tell the story. That was discussed in this post, among others...
Message 19938076
(BTW, the Phase 3 protocol posted here is verbatim from the Oxo Chemie site. Not one word has been changed. If there were changes in the protocol, Dimethaid never informed its own shareholders what those changes were).
We can see there are some differences from what Oxo Chemie said, and what Dimethaid says. For instance, news releases claimed the trial was fully enrolled (240 patients).
aegis.com
Dimethaid claims there were only 229 patients.
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Despite what you read from management's pumpers on this board, Dr. Kuhne and the MMC have significant resources. And yes, those people who have associated themselves with the MMC must obviously have faith in WF10.
Given the sequence of events (or non-events) on the WF10 front, many investors have reservations about the information we have been given.
No one is suggesting that Markham would pervert the trial results in order to discredit Dr. Kuhne, WF10 - and therefore the MMC. After all, we expected - and posted, many times - that HAART would mitigate the clear effects we saw from the Vanderbilt trial.
But trial data are subject to interpretation - and Dimethaid's analysis was governed by Dimethaid, not Oxo Chemie.
It may be just a coincidence that Markham hasn't had - and won't have - the money to develop WF10, after spending tens of millions on it. It may be just a coincidence that the limited information we've been given finally comes out just before the AGM.
We haven't been given all the facts. There are obvious discrepancies, and some troubling questions.
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Could Dr. Kuhne and the MMC bring WF10 - and Penecure - to reality? Could good management with conventional financing make Dimethaid a winner - with Dr. Kuhne's active support? After existing management has driven it into near-death?
In my opinion, yes. Could existing management do the same? Based on their past record of mistakes and misjudgements, based on their continued usage of death-spiral financing and high-cost debt, IMO the answer is clear: no.
If Dr. Kuhne and the MMC are not successful, Dimethaid will be toast, IMO. Nothing that The Markham Gang has said, or done has changed that opinion.
You are right to hope for the success of the MMC. Like you, many shareholders believe it's the only remaining chance. I believe they're correct.
Jim |
