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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK)
NOK 6.260+1.0%3:50 PM EST
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To: davidtrx who wrote (26611)7/26/2004 1:08:37 PM
From: Eric L  Read Replies (1) of 34857
 
The Nokia Short Term

David,

<< Notwithstanding your analysis and well as my own warm feelings toward the company, its management philosophy and its leadership position, do not be surprised if NOK first declines to below $10 along the way to wherever it is otherwise going. >>

That is a distinct possibility. Investor confidence is at an all time low and Nokia has fairly warned to expect a rather grim Q3.

Q4 will be highly dependent on what they release for new product on the Series 40 SE, and Series 60 SE platforms, between now and November 3 (Monaco) that will deliver by the holidays, and delivering everything they have already announced relatively "clean" and in volume.

Of particular interest will be their UMTS offerings beyond the recently announced Nokia 6630 monoblock, but those products aren't going to contribute all that much for top and bottom line dollars in this calendar year even though they might nudge up Q4 ASP, and they may not ship till H1 2005.

The GPRS/EGPRS products will be key. Their first 1xRTT clam could give a lift but it is not FCC certified yet.

Currency conversion will continue to weigh heavy. Strengthening of the USD against the EURO will help but there is no certainty that will occur this year.

I exited a reduced long position at mid $14's in anticipation of Q2 results and guidance and reentered smaller at $12.12 after earnings. I will add on any dip below $11, and again on any dip below $10.

- Eric -
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