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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated

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To: LindyBill who wrote (56569)	7/28/2004 10:32:23 AM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (1) of 793999

A few points on Hubbert. Please take with the usual dose of NaCl because I'm simply not qualified to speak authoritatively on the issue. Very few people here--quehubo notably excepted--can. Hubbert made his predictions many decades before horizontal drilling and 3-D seismic exploration made the discovery and extraction of new reserves a lot less of a gamble than before. Second, there have been no major exploration efforts in the ME in decades. We don't really know how much oil lies there waiting to be extracted because there is no incentive to explore as it so easy to fulfill requirements from existing fields. This happened in Mexico in the 1970s--everyone thought Mexico had been tapped out of oil until some very big fields were discovered after exploration efforts became serious again. There is no avoiding what Hubbert predicts. However, I think it is going to happen a lot later than the pessimists suggest. We have a lot more time to develop alternative sources of energy than we think, though we are doing an incredibly poor job of it. The above of course doesn't factor in the terrorists. Obviously, they can dramatically change supply but probably only on a fairly short term basis.

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