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Politics : Don't Blame Me, I Voted For Kerry

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To: ChinuSFO who wrote (38616)7/29/2004 10:49:11 AM
From: Rock_njRead Replies (4) of 81568
 
If the military families turn against Bush, then he's in real trouble. At this point his core consituency are natural conservatives (economic and social), Christain Conservatives (they're not changing their alligence), military conservatives (basically lock step conservatives who believe in God, Country and George W. Bush), and Libertarian conservatives (a group that's increasingly at odds with the direction the Republicans are moving).

Bush can't afford to lose any one of these four consituencies, or he's sunk. Natural and Christain conservatives aren't leaving the Bush camp, they have nowhere else to go. Libertarian oriented conservatives might be turned off by things like the PATRIOT Act and the spending like drunken sailors that has been going on during Bush's term, and they do have other options like voting Libertarian. But, Libertarian conservatives are a very small segment of the Republican party, less of an influence than the Greens are on the Democrats. It's really the military families that Bush can't afford to lose. If he loses them in any significant numbers, he's in big trouble. That might just happen if things get uglier in Iraq before the election. They're certainly not getting much better. I don't know how many would be swayed by F911, but even if a few are it could tip the election. If just 5% of military families vote for Kerry this year instead of Bush, Bush is in trouble. That's a scenario I could definitely see occuring.
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