NEWSWEEK POLL: DEMOCRATIC CONVENTION 2004 -- Kerry/Edwards Leads Bush/Cheney 52 to 44 Percent; Dems Receive Two-Point Margin Bounce in Two-Way Race, Four-Point Bounce in Three-Way Race
prnewswire.com
58 Percent Dissatisfied With Direction of Country;
57 Percent Say War With Iraq Has Not Made U.S. Safer
NEW YORK, July 31 /PRNewswire/ -- In a two-way trial heat between the
Republican and Democratic Presidential candidates, among registered voters,
Sen. John Kerry/Sen. John Edwards lead President George Bush/Vice-President
Dick Cheney 52-44 percent, according to the latest Newsweek Poll, conducted
Thursday and Friday. In a three-way race with the Ralph Nader/Peter Camejo
ticket added, Kerry/Edwards receives 49 percent of the vote; Bush/Cheney, 42
percent and Nader/Camejo, 3 percent, the poll shows.
In the two-way heat in the July 8-9 Newsweek Poll, Kerry led Bush by six
points, 51 to 45 percent. In the three-way heat from that week, Kerry led Bush
by 3 points, 47 to 44 percent, and Nader received 3 percent of the vote, the
poll shows. Therefore, coming out of the final two days of the Democratic
National Convention, the poll shows a four-point margin "bounce" in the three-
way heat and a two-point margin "bounce" in the two-way heat.
In interviews on Thursday, July 29-before the Kerry nomination acceptance
speech-Kerry/Edwards received the support of 47 percent of registered voters,
Bush/Cheney 45 percent and Nader/Camejo 2 percent, according to the Newsweek
Poll. In Friday interviews after the speech, Kerry/Edwards received 50
percent, Bush/Cheney 40 percent and Nader/Camejo 3 percent. In the two-way
race, in interviews on July 29, Kerry/Edwards received 49 percent and
Bush/Cheney 47 percent. On July 30, Kerry/Edwards got 54 percent and
Bush/Cheney 41 percent, the poll shows.
Reflecting the DNC's themes, 27 percent of registered voters say Kerry's
war record makes them more likely to vote for him (15% say less likely); five
percent say Bush's war record makes them more likely to vote for him (22% say
less likely). And overall, 51 percent of registered voters say Bush has done
more to divide Americans than unite them (39 percent say he has done more to
unite them).
Looking at crossover voters from the 2000 election, 92 percent of Gore
voters in 2000 support Kerry (5 percent say they will vote for Bush and 3
percent is undecided); 84 percent of Bush voters say they plan to vote for the
president again (four percent of Bush 2000 voters are undecided, 10 percent
say they will vote for Kerry and 2 percent for Nader).
Only 19 percent of registered voters say they paid a great deal of
attention to the Democratic convention, 29 percent said some. Fifty-one
percent paid very little (26%) or no attention (25%) to the convention. And 55
percent of registered voters say from what they've seen or heard about the
convention Kerry and Edwards would provide the kind of leadership that would
unite Americans (33% say they would not), the poll shows.
As for who will handle issues better, among registered voters, Bush and
Kerry are even at 46 percent on handling the situation in Iraq, but Bush
scores better on handling terrorism and homeland security (48% vs. 43%). And
46 percent say Bush is closer to the their view on gay marriage (33% say
Kerry). But Kerry scores better on handling health care, including Medicare
(55% vs. 32%), American jobs and foreign competition (53% vs. 36%), and
education (48% vs. 40%), the environment (59% vs. 29%) and stem cell research
(53% vs. 26%), the poll shows. Bush's job-approval rating dropped to 45
percent among all those polled.
Regarding foreign policy issues, among registered voters, 43 percent say
the Bush administration has not done enough to involve major allies and
international organizations; 38 percent say they've done the right amount. But
60 percent say the administration's policies and diplomatic efforts have led
to more anti-Americanism around the world; just 9 percent say they've improved
America's image around the world, the poll shows. And 71 percent of registered
voters say the way people in other countries feel about the United States
should matter at least somewhat (38% say a lot) to our political leaders in
Washington.
Fifty-seven percent of registered voters say going to war with Iraq has
not made America safer from terrorism and 58 percent say they are not
satisfied with the way things are going in the U.S., the poll shows.
Sixty-seven percent of registered voters say Kerry is personally likable
(compared to 62 percent who say the same of President Bush), an increase for
Kerry from 60 percent in the July 8-9 Newsweek Poll; 58 percent say he has
strong leadership qualities (compared to 60 percent who say the same for
Bush). Fifty-seven percent of registered voters say he cares about people like
them (vs. 44% for Bush) and 58 percent say he is honest and ethical (vs. 54%
for Bush), the poll shows. Fifty-three percent say they would trust him to
make the right decisions during an international crisis (48% say they would
trust Bush) and 49 percent say he says what he believes, not just what people
want to hear, compared to 58 percent for Bush.
Regardless of which presidential candidate they support, 43 percent of
registered voters think Bush is more likely to win in November, 44 percent say
Kerry. An increase for Kerry in the July 8-9 Newsweek Poll, which found 47
percent said Bush and 38 percent said Kerry. When asked who they would vote
for if they could vote for vice president separately, registered voters chose
Edwards over Cheney, 55-36 percent.
For this Newsweek Poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates International
interviewed 1,190 adults aged 18 and older on July 29-30, 2004. The margin of
error is plus or minus 3 percentage points. This poll is part of the August 9
issue of Newsweek (on newsstands Monday, August 2).
SOURCE Newsweek
Web Site: newsweek.msnbc.com |
