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Politics : Sioux Nation

DJT 13.09

-1.8%

Nov 7 9:30 AM EST

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To: redfish who wrote (162)	7/31/2004 10:43:27 PM
From: redfish	Read Replies (1) of 360951

Bush got a 4% convention bounce in the last elections. If you look at Reagan and Clinton, it appears that a sitting president tends to get a smaller bounce in his re-election bid. Clinton went from 16% to 5% Bush I went from 6% to 5% Reagan went from 8% to 4% Also republican conventions don't seem to provide much bang for the buck in recent elections: 2000 4% 1996 3% 1992 5% This is probably on account of republicans turning their conventions into pro-life fests. Based on past history, Bush will probably get a convention bounce of 3% or less, which will not be nearly enough to put him ahead of Kerry. Once the convention is over, the debates will be the only things that get much attention, and the odds of Bush looking good in those are miniscule. It will be a miracle if he can get through them without experiencing a full-blown psychotic episode that results in one of his secret service detail taking him down with a tranquilizer dart. Source for numbers: swingstateproject.com

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