Electoral college changes since 2000:
In 2000, Bush won the electoral college 271 to 267 for Gore. If Bush wins the same states in 2004, he would win 278 to 260. This is because the congressional seats were reapportioned based on the 2000 census.
Here are the differences between 2000 and 2004:
Gain votes ...
Texas +2 (Bush 2000, Bush 2004)
Georgia +2 (Bush 2000, Bush 2004)
Arizona +2 (Bush 2000, battleground 2004)
Florida +2 (Bush 2000, battleground 2004)
North Carolina +1 (Bush 2000, Bush 2004)
Colorado +1 (Bush 2000, Bush 2004)
Nevada +1 (Bush 2000, battleground 2004)
California +1 (Gore 2000, Kerry 2004)
Lose votes ...
Oklahoma -1 (Bush 2000, Bush 2004)
Mississippi -1 (Bush 2000, Bush 2004)
Indiana -1 (Bush 2000, Bush 2004)
Ohio -1 (Bush 2000, battleground 2004)
Wisconsin -1 (Gore 2000, battleground 2004)
Michigan -1 (Gore 2000, Kerry 2004)
Illinios -1 (Gore 2000, Kerry 2004)
Connecticut -1 (Gore 2000, Kerry 2004)
Pennsylvania -2 (Gore 2000, Kerry 2004)
New York -2 (Gore 2000, Kerry 2004)
Kerry could hold all of Gore's states, pickup New Hampshire (4) and Nevada (5), and Kerry would still lose (it would be tied, and Bush wins the TIE). |
