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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 330.35

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4:00 PM EST

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (17514)	8/1/2004 10:53:22 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (3) of 95708

Thanks for the detailed explanation, RtS. Where we differ is that I don't see the same 4 year cycle we saw from 97 to 2001 being played out here. I think the cycle will be longer, at least before we have the "classic" definition of a recession in the US. The key is oil prices and if they back off for a substantial length of time. If we can get oil back down into the mid to low 30s, the US economy will perform much better over the next 2 years as it has during the last 2. Oil prices are probably 30% to 50% higher then they "should be". This has taxed the recovery process in the US, although it has helped other parts of the global economy. The oil rich countries have had a nice pop in their revenues and they can "afford" to see prices ease some.

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