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Politics : Don't Blame Me, I Voted For Kerry
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To: cirrus who wrote (39840)8/2/2004 9:37:02 PM
From: American SpiritRead Replies (1) of 81568
 
Latest polls have Kerry leading by 8% and 6% also. You used the word "polls" then only cited one poll, the one you picked that shows Bush stronger than the others. They average out to about a 3.5% lead for Kerry which is not much but it's more solid now and may be the margin of victory. The convention basically solidified a lot of voters. Those who were leaning Kerry before are now solidly with him and vice versa. Bush won't get a bounce from his convention either probably.

But even the USA Today poll which shows Bush tied with Kerry also shows Bush has a whopping 49% DISapproval rating. That means 49% of the people will absolutely not vote for Bush. But that totgeher with 58% of Americans thinking we're on the WRONG track and that's doubly distressing for Bushies.

The reason there's little or no bounce was because the sides may now be solidly about 45%-45% with only about 10% undecided. But where are those voters and who will turn out? In battleground states Kerry has about a 5% lead. That is bad news for Bush.

Bush's 45% lead in Utah doesn't matter. If he is one vote behind Kerry in Florida, Arizona, Mirrousi, Ohio or West Virginia though he loses. Bush has to win every single battleground state to win. Kerry only needs to win two. That's the real math.
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