Well, right now the SOX has bounced off the 390/400 area and closed today at 418 - about a 5 percent change. If we can get to 450, that is another 7 percent or so, which would be about 12 percent overall. Not really very much in the way of a rally.
Just by "eyeballing" the SOX chart, a lot of "congestion" exists in the 450 area. If a rally can get through that area, we should be able to get to the 500 area - that would be about a 25 percent gain for the SOX - respectable.
A 25 percent gain for the SOX should be about a 12 percent gain for the NASDAQ - going from 1840 to about 2060 - that's good, but maybe we can do better.
As I sit here and watch the "numbers" roll by week after week, the retrenchment in the Group and SOX has been "brutal". From 1/17 to 7/23 the following has happened to the Group, SOX, and NASDAQ
GROUP SOX NAS
PRICE PRICE PRICE
1/17/04 641 557 2140
7/23/04 379 406 1849
CHG -261 -152 -291
PCT -41 -27 -14
For the Group and the SOX, the earnings estimates have continued to increase.
2 YR 2 YR
GROUP SOX
ERNGS ERNGS
1/17/04 15.32 23.09
7/23/04 50.87 40.96
CHG 35.55 17.87
PCT 232 77
The point I am getting at is the fact of prices going down and earnings going up. This has been predicated on the fact that the semi-equips were going to begin "rolling over" in 2H04 and really "tank" in 2005.
I submit that one of these days, the "market" is going to wake up to the fact, that this cycle still has legs. If it does, I think we can go substantially higher than the 2060 listed above - how much higher? - depends on a lot of factors going forward.
Let's put it another way. The entities that want the "short" cycle would like to see lower prices before they buy. Maybe when they find out they can't push the prices any lower, they will start to buy. If that happens we should be able to see that effect in the volume numbers.
Don |
