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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 301.15

-1.2%

Dec 31 4:00 PM EST

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (17561)	8/3/2004 1:40:40 AM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (3) of 95657

<<how sure are you that "they" cannot ultimately push stocks lower?>> Well, I really can't - not over the short term. <<Even on a fundamental basis a very good case can be made for technology stocks still being overvalued compared to any other period in history other than the bubble years.>> I have seen some of these arguments. I think the term "technology stocks" is too broad. Arguably, some are overvalued, but I don't think the semi-equips fall in this category. They are very undervalued right now, but that is because the "market" expects the semi chip sales and semi-equip bookings to "roll over" in the next few months. This is what the "argument is all about. Are we going to peak and go down the right side of the cycle, or do we continue on an upward slope, but at a slower rate of growth for the next several quarters. We don't know the final answer to which scenario will be followed, but so far, I like the continued growth scenario better. <<Even when the market appears unreasonable it is always right.>> I don't believe that. I think it is just as often wrong as it is right. <<Short term rally up to around 450 on the SOX is all we should reasonably expect unless we get a lot of institutional buyers willing to hold stocks.>> I agree. Don

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