Yet the CSFB semiconductor analysts seem more positive:
Semiconductor Devices Market Weight M.Masdea
June SIA Results;Cycle Still Strong (415)836-7779
•Today we are launching a revamped analysis of the SIA data intended to better capture the relevant trends in the data.
Comparisons with seasonality across our segmented data (products,end-markets,and geographies)should provide quicker
and deeper insights into the data.Feedback,as always,is encouraged.
•Cycle Still Strong.While valid concerns over a 2005 downturn loom,June SIA data released Saturday night (lagging indicator
and largely known given 2Q04 results) showed accelerating,above-seasonal growth (+23.1%m/m vs.+14.8%m/m
seasonal).During June,above seasonal units (+12.2%m/m vs.+8.7%m/m seasonal)and above seasonal pricing (+9.7% m/m vs.+5.5%m/m seasonal) both contributed.
•Pricing Contributing This Cycle.After 7 years of secular weakness in pricing,tight utilization continues to drive ASP gains, with above seasonal increases in June.We expect a favorable pricing environment through as late as early 2005, given a historical lag relative to units.
•Blowout 2Q04 -On Track for +28%in '04.Sequential growth in 2Q04 came in well above typical seasonal performance
(+9.5%q/q vs.+1.5%seasonal).On a y/y basis,industry growth accelerated to a near-record level (+40.3%).Assuming only
a seasonal 2H,the industry is on-track for roughly +28%y/y growth.We continue to forecast a mild '05 downturn (-2%y/y).
•Highlights:Memory (DRAM,Flash)led the strength,followed by DSPs,logic and MCUs.MPUs and analog were the weakest,
due in large part to supply-chain issues.See exhibit 1. |
