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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: tradermike_1999 who started this subject8/4/2004 1:00:12 PM
From: macavity  Read Replies (1) of 74559
 
Oil at Record highs.

All the news is going on about it and the market is in go-go mood.

Fundamentally.
1) I believe that any demand in the current economic bull is drying out.
2) The rally/carry-trade was a technical engineered one due to excess dollar liquidity

Technically.
The $SOX is leading the way down (it did lead the way up, suggesting that the rally impressive though it was was a counter-trend one). It has broken its 55wk EMA.
The baltic index appears to have peaked (requires confirmation).
The dollar has found friends, and gold appears to be unable to rally above 55wk EMA (for now).

In a non-fiat world we would be screaming deflation and a lack of demand.

Just shorted an Oil e-mini (QM) and will add to on weakness ( a new low in daily bar charts and a new low on weekly).

Who knows? - not me!

-macavity
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