Semi Equipment Analysis Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 301.15

-1.2%

4:00 PM EST

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To: The Ox who wrote (17606)	8/4/2004 2:36:17 PM
From: etchmeister	Read Replies (1) of 95656

Almost no one is willing to say anything that could be interpreted as the slightest bit bullish about the future. No. Down is the only possibility going forward. Either our estimates are ok or they are way too high. No way could we miss a possible upside looming on the horizon. Thank God for bookings versus IC sales chart; (it's always helpful to "calibrate" pundit's comments) the rootcause for downturn is excessive spending; if u - rates tumble from 100% to less than 50% within a quarter than this qualifies as a peak; however current predictions now call for the 100% range over the next two quarters which would mean that u-rates are hovering in the 100% +/- 5 to 10% for almost 9 months (at least in the case of TSMC); for sure that does NOT qualify as a peak

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