Senator Kerry Retains A Lead Through His Convention, New Zogby Interactive Presidential Battleground Poll Reveals
Democratic Presidential candidate John Kerry remains solidly in the lead after a week in which his party and candidacy grabbed the political spotlight at their national convention in Boston, a new edition of Zogby Interactive polls in 16 battleground states shows.
After a string of good news for the Kerry campaign stretching back to the selection of North Carolina Sen. John Edwards as the vice presidential running mate a month ago, he leads in the Electoral College by a 291-215 margin, the individual state polls shows. Four of the 16 states in the poll collection - with a combined total of 32 electoral votes - were excluded from the calculation because the races there are too close to call.
Those states are Missouri (11 votes), Nevada (5 votes), Tennessee (11 votes), and New Mexico (5 votes). Mr. Bush won all but New Mexico four years ago.
Mr. Kerry picked up ground in Florida, while Mr. Bush made up ground in West Virginia, Tennessee, and Ohio.
ZOGBY'S RACE SO FAR:
Aug. 3
Jul
26
Jul
10
Jun
20
Jun
6
May 23
President Bush
215
220
205
285
242
218
Senator Kerry
291
275
322
253
296
320
Please note that this chart reflects the race based on the premise that the 34 states not included in the poll will fall to the candidate of the same party to which they fell in 2000. This chart reflects only an estimation of where the Presidential race is, in part because the race in several states is within the margin of error. Four states are so close that their Electoral College votes are not included in this calculation. Those states are Missouri, Nevada, Tennessee, and New Mexico.
Mr. Kerry continues a strong season on the campaign trail as the war for the White House enters a new phase. In the past, Mr. Kerry had benefited not from the power of his own personality or compelling platform of programs, but rather by the political troubles Mr. Bush has suffered as Commander in Chief because of military setbacks in Iraq, or because of the sluggish economy, or by the electricity generated by the addition of John Edwards to the team.
This newest edition of the poll, however, comes as Mr. Kerry was the focus of a concentrated four-day program at the convention. There’s not much movement in the polls, but that wasn’t expected because there are abnormally low numbers of undecided voters in this race.
Republicans tried to push up expectations that Mr. Kerry would get a big bounce coming out of the convention so that later on, when that bounce didn’t materialize, it would reflect negatively on the Democratic nominee. It is still unclear whether that tactic worked.
The two candidates continued to canvass the nation raising boatloads of campaign cash, much of it for their political parties instead of their own campaigns, with the unspoken understanding that the parties would then turn around and spend that money advertising or otherwise aiding the election of their Presidential candidate. In battleground states this weekend, Mr. Kerry’s advertising campaign went off the air, and the next day, the Democratic National Committee’s slate of commercials began.
So intense is the battle in states like Ohio and Pennsylvania that the Bush and Kerry campaigns almost passed on Interstate 70 Saturday in western Pennsylvania, as Mr. Bush motored east after stumping in Cleveland, Canton, and Cambridge, Ohio, and Mr. Kerry was headed west to campaign in Zanesville, Ohio.
Their motorcades are so large and disruptive to highway traffic that it's
probably good news for the economy that they didn’t meet.
Pollster John Zogby: "Kerry had a good week and the numbers reflect it --especially in West Virginia, New Hampshire, and Florida. These represent his bump in the Electoral College. Meanwhile, President Bush has improved in a few states, notably Ohio where he has widened his lead. Ohio is a must win for Bush.
"These numbers track well with our national telephone sampling after the convention, where Kerry now leads by 5 points -- 48% to 43%.
"It will shortly be time for the Republicans to convene their convention in New York. The President will get a small bump, but -- like Kerry -- not a big one. There is just not enough give this year.”
zogby.com |
