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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room

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To: Tommaso who wrote (34174)	8/5/2004 12:12:41 PM
From: kollmhn	Read Replies (1) of 206254

2Q In-Line; No Change to Thesis STOCK RATING UNDERWEIGHT–V (no change) Price (August 4, 2004) $19.33 Price Target NA 52-Week Range $24.45-12.10 Stock ratings are relative to the analyst’s industry (or industry team’s) coverage universe. WHAT’S CHANGED 2004E EPS $1.79 to $1.78 2005E EPS $1.01 to $0.89 2006E EPS $1.14 to $0.98 2004E CFPS $4.91 to $4.87 2005E CFPS $4.26 to $3.92 2006E CFPS $4.60 to $4.22 • QoQ cost control a positive CRK reported 2Q04 operating EPS of $0.52, within the range of Morgan Stanley & consensus expectations of $0.51 and $0.55 respectively. Volumes, up ~4% sequentially, were slightly below our expectations, however strong realizations and sequential cost control were positive offsets. • Capex Increased; production guidance unchanged CRK continues to work towards project execution and exploration exposure, with the balance of 2004 lined up to continue 2Q04’s sequential production growth momentum. That said, net of the ~36% increase in capital spending (from $110 mm to $150 mm), no increase in overall 2004 production volumes is expected, with YoY growth targeted in the 7-8% range (vs. 10-15% anticipated earlier in the year). • Maintain Underweight-V Rating, at this time We continue to prefer risk/reward opportunities elsewhere in the group at this time. We review CRK’s conservative net asset value support at $17/sh in Exhibit 3. • Industry View: In-Line (pg. 2) FY ending Dec 31: 2003 2004e 2005e 2006e ModelWare EPS ($) 1.57 1.78 0.89 0.98 Prior EPS Ests. ($) – 1.79 1.01 1.14 CFPS ($) 4.14 4.87 3.92 4.22 Prior CFPS Ests. ($) – 4.91 4.26 4.60 – – – – P/E – 10.9 21.7 19.7 P/CF – 4.0 4.9 4.6 – – – – – – – – Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 – – – – Market Cap ($ mm) 696 Q'trly 2004e 2005e 2006e Enterprise Value ($ mm) – EPS estmate curr prior curr prior Debt/Cap (2004E)(%) 46.9 Q1 0.35 0.22 – 0.24 – Return on Equity (2004E)(%) 20.1 Q2 0.52e 0.22 – 0.24 – Shares Outstanding (mm) 36.0 Q3 0.44e 0.23 – 0.25 – –Q4 0.47e 0.23 – 0.25 –

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