Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT)

AMAT 258.57

-0.5%

12:15 PM EST

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (11116)	8/5/2004 2:57:04 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (2) of 25522

Analysis: Who is providing the chip market's growth? By Peter Clarke Silicon Strategies 08/05/2004, 2:00 PM ET LONDON -- Sales at the top two foundry chip makers, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. (TSMC) and United Microelectronics Corp. (UMC), grew by about 37 percent 1H04 over 1H03 but TSMC grew by 46.3 percent 1Q04/1Q03 and UMC grew by 41.5 percent 1Q04/1Q03. This implies the leading foundries' sales growths 2Q04/2Q03 were considerably lower percentages than 37 percent. The point is that the foundry market is growing fast -- but the growth rate has been slowing through the year. As such VLSI Research's 33 percent growth figure for the foundry market overall in 2004, looks bullish to me. Meanwhile the semiconductor market overall grew by 32.3 percent 1Q04/1Q03 and by 40.3 percent 2Q04/2Q03 according to World Semiconductor Trade Statistics organization (WSTS) and the United States Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), which means that the top two foundries were at very considerably lower growth rates than the industry as a whole in the second quarter of 2004. The growth figures are still high but that in itself tells us a couple of things and begs a question or two. First a preamble then a question: in 2003 the foundries drove the semiconductor market scoring much higher growth on behalf of a lot of fabless semiconductor companies, while a lot of IDMs were still sorting out manufacturing strategy. So who is achieving the phenomenal sales growth in 2004 that is driving the WSTS figure of 40.3 percent growth year-on-year for the second quarter of 2004. Intel's second quarter, which because of Intel's size is a large proportion of the market, was only up 18 percent. What such high growth figures must also indicate is that can surely be no more upside. We cannot expect to see even higher growth for the chip market in the third quarter, at some point the Asia-Pacific region, which is driving the overall market, has to cool. And the ordering of the numbers, with the general market ahead of the foundry market, suggests that the foundries are leading the market; this time into the second half of the growth phase during which absolute market size continues to increase but growth rates diminish. The nagging question remains as to where are the published results of companies of significant size to drive second quarter 2004 market figures of 40.3 percent growth.

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next