Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: macavity who wrote (52126)	8/6/2004 7:20:56 AM
From: Seeker of Truth	Read Replies (1) of 74559

Mr. Macavity, I strongly fear that you are currently playing a losing game. Do you keep careful records of the profits and losses of what "technical analysis" is doing for you? When you look at the price of any commodity producer's stock you are getting the info about what stock traders think about next year and to a lesser degree the ensuing years.For example, every Canadian broker I know of is predicting lower prices for oil and the oil stocks in 2005 compared with 2004. They were also unanimous last year in predicting lower prices in 2004 compared with 2003. Of course, oil has to drop severely at some point. But what makes you believe that the "market" is telling us something important? Commodity prices are real; stock prices are the "Street's fancy. I think you will increase your assets more if you assess the future of the oil business itself rather than what occult prices are telling you. Please keep your own records and see. As they say, "I never met a rich chartist." In my youth they had not yet invented the fancy term "technical analysis". But it's the same old $6&@xx*?, fill in the expletive of your choice.

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