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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: Silver Super Bull who wrote (17312)8/6/2004 10:37:32 AM
From: russwinter  Read Replies (2) of 110194
 
There are critical supply problems with energy, and it's long term and structural, so forget about sub $30, or even $35 oil. You will need a lot more than a few percentage points deceleration in economic activity to cure this. Plus I believe it's being fueled by the F3IP (Fed's Fully Inflation Program). However, there has been an heroic effort underway to rebuild inventories, and the markets had a huge break this summer on weather, Venz, etc. There are still some MoP games that could be played with the SPR too. In the short term I see a sharp energy correction only (not a collapse), unless the world economy literally falls off (defined as 5% drop in world GDP) a cliff here.
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