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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 306.14+0.4%Dec 24 4:00 PM EST
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To: Alastair McIntosh who wrote (17711)8/6/2004 5:46:14 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom  Read Replies (1) of 95634
 
As promised earlier to the thread, the following is a synopsis of the action for the 3 reporting periods of this year. This is an update to the table posted for the first 2 reporting periods this year. Both the Group and SOX are shown below.

Each of the 3 reporting periods starts with the beginning of the earnings reporting season and ends 3 weeks later at the end of the reporting season. This gives us equal time periods to correlate the data.

Let's take the Group first. The sum of the 2 year earnings estimates are up from 15.32 on 1/17, to 51.26 at today's close, a gain of 235 percent. At the same time, the Group price has declined from 640.69 to 361.06, a loss of 44 percent.

The SOX has similar statistics. The sum of the 2 years earnings estimates goes from 23.09 to 41.97, a gain of 82 percent. At the same time, the SOX price has declined from 557.15 to 386.88, a loss of 31 percent.

-	  FIRST CALL	SUM	EARN	       PRICE   TOTAL
-	 EARNINGS EST	TWO	PCT	GROUP	PCT	PCT
DATE	CURR YR	NEXT YR	YEARS	CHG	PRICE	CHG	CHG
1/17/04	 -2.91	 18.23	15.32	       640.69
2/7/04	  4.47	 24.37	28.84	 88    570.81	-11	-11

4/16/04	  9.75	 29.59	39.34	       494.58		-23
5/7/04	 12.22	 31.07	43.29	 10    450.54	 -9	-30

7/16/04	 14.42	 31.14	45.56	       396.95		-38
8/6/04	 20.12	 31.14	51.26	 13    361.06	 -9	-44

-	  FIRST CALL	SUM	EARN	       PRICE   TOTAL
-	 EARNINGS EST	TWO	PCT	 SOX	PCT	PCT
DATE	CURR YR	NEXT YR	YEARS	CHG	PRICE	CHG	CHG
1/17/04	  7.28	 15.81	23.09		557.15
2/7/04	 13.78	 20.67	34.45	 49	519.41	 -7	 -7

4/16/04	 15.07	 22.17	37.24		480.14		-14
5/7/04	 16.86	 23.78	40.64	  9	457.01	 -5	-18

7/16/04	 17.07	 23.22	40.29		410.46		-26
8/6/04	 18.79	 23.18	41.97	  4	386.88	 -6	-31
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