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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 306.04

0.0%

Dec 26 4:00 PM EST

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To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (17742)	8/7/2004 9:18:04 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (2) of 95640

HI Sarmad, Releasing oil from the SPR won't do a thing. When Clinton did it it backfired - it is just a political action. More oil released to refineries that are operating at max will not result in any market place action. The price of oil is up on a fear of supply interuptions.The topping off of the SPR is in fact the most conservative action to guard against a true shortage condition. In our violent global world , the possibility of a supply interuption is just now being clearly understood.It is a real possibility and the best action to take is the maximizing of the SPR capacities. Bush will conclude this before year end - the topping off is not that big of an undertaking as we've added to the SPR for decades now. I think the result of the increased OPEC shipments have not yet been fully felt. If you announce an increase today - you then must fill ships and sail them to American ports.This is as best I can tell a 7-8 week event.The increase was announced in mid June. We should be flooding in crude oil soon.When no one wants to take delivery of an expensive crude oil contract and the speculators are facing storage fees (upon taking delivery of an overpriced contract) you'll see futures limit down big time. All speculation overachieves and that is where we are now IMHO. This house of cards will fall quick - but it must go through a blowoof top first - just like the NAZ in 00. As for the emplyment #'s we're growing slower than we want - but 5.5% is still a historically EXCELLENT number. This is an election year and a lot of spin is put on everything. As for business spending:Corporate cash flow is HUGE.There is litttle demand for credit and rate increases will be slower than most think.Measured will mean skipped - a most positive time to skip will be just before the elections. Businesses have only five months to buy and implement capital expenditures and be able to depreciate 50% of the cost this calendar year.This will ensure a mad rush to the buying and paying of much IT gear and many other items cars trucks etc.. This is like a half off sale for business - after the income taxes at year end are considered - believe me,accountants are talking up this expiring benefit. As for NO MORE TAX STIMULUS - that's bunk. Bushes tax cuts were retro active and had initial impact FIRST on low income people includiing 500 dollar rebates.The cuts in taxes came later to the higher income bracets. At first the higher rates had no benefits,then a 1/2 percent cut and now a 1% cut per year. When it comes to higher income people the tax cuts are just beginning to have impact. These are all news facts - most of which we lose track of due to all of the ELECTION NOISE AND SPIN. Just look at Don's and G's wonderful data. Earnings up stock price down. BP % at historical bottom lows Then compare it to the spin: Jobs up 32,000 and its terrible. Rates are going up and will choke corporate profits:so far we're up 1/4 of a point and everyone says another 1/4 will come next week.The futures say hikes are over after that.So we have a whopping 1/2 a point hike up from 45 year historical lows rates. Crude is high and terrorism is pricing it high.We've made more progress o dismantling the terrorists than ever before in our lives - This is being totally ignorred. Our Strategic Petroleum Preserve is now so strong that a terrorist attack on an oil export facility could easily be repaired with out supply interruptions.This capability is not being recognized at all. There is a disconnect between earnings and stock prices - these are the opportunities one waits for in a lifetime.It should make us all not be able to sleep - trying to figure out which of these great stocks will have the most demand for their products in the future.We should be arguing over which security will give us the highest percent rise in the next leg of this recovery! These prices won't get much lower - notice how the volatility is growing - Even RtS will be liking this market soon. I like the fast price deterioration - it denotes a bottom coming and capitulation of those who bought too high (recently). Some stocks will bottom out first and reversa ,while others will lag and bottom out 1-2 weeks later if this bottom is like the past bottomns. These are exciting times and equities that are more profitable now than they have been in a long time are on sale at a discount. Enjoy the shopping. I'd like to get a consensus on this thread as to when to pull the buy trigger on what stocks- we have a great opportunity to secure capital gains for ourselves in 05.I believe we can do quite well. This thread should analyse why our favorites should be targets for further accumulation and then we should post our trades like many do over on the Full Disclosure thread. My bet is we all can make some serious money if we just clearly "KNOW WHAT WE KNOW" and NOT let all this election crap put on the blinders. Pardon my Saturday morning speech. Bob

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