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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
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To: mishedlo who wrote (10330)8/8/2004 11:06:34 AM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) of 116555
 
I am a resident of neither inflation nor deflation club
as I have said for the last several months

BOTH EFFECTS ARE AT WORK
both you and Russ are correct
but at different times in the ebb & flow

when rates shot up from 3.7% to 4.8%, you seemed in the wrong club this spring
I dont see clubs

with a grand stall underway now, the deflationary ebb is now at work

I am preparing a nice essay (sketchy and high level though) for Monday Financial Sense

it will be about how much of the monetary expansion is contributing to deflationary forces !!!

a kneejerk claim that huge money supply rise will cause price inflation is simply naive
do we have tons of new businesses springing up in USA, taking advantage of easy money, hiring lots of young workers ???
no, we have new debt, housing speculation, etc

I expect energy to vastly outperform precious metals
the stagflation scenario is emerging slow
energy is too essential to forego in a slower economy
gold will rise when the crises hit next year

let me ask you a direct tough question:
AT WHAT POINT DO YOU EXPECT US RATES TO RISE FROM ASIAN SELLING OF USTBONDS ???
JAPAN HAS ALREADY REDUCED PURCHASES BY 80-90% ROUGHLY
CHINA HAS ALSO PULLED BACK
THE FED SEEMS TO HAVE TAKEN UP SLACK WITH MONETIZATION
your comments would be greatly appreciated, Mr Ebb

/ jim
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