Semi Equipment Analysis Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 303.84

+1.3%

Dec 22 4:00 PM EST

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (17785)	8/8/2004 2:02:37 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) of 95626

HiRtS, Don't know tomato but, He claims Bears exceed Bulls: Message 20389857 I'm not trying to save the 03 rally. I do believe that long term technical strength is added to a market as itputs in multi month consolidations.These are periods of sideways price action as the underlying companies add to profitability. I believe the market got ahead of itself and is now in a shakeout phase.The one and only thing that will stop the price erosion,is continued profitability. I think that industry (manufacturing )is slowly crawling out of a severe contraction. The era of high demand for end user consumer electronics is alive and well.Ipods,PDA - wireless,cell phones,laptops,and yes even desk tops are all adding to an aggregate growing end user demand. Retail sales are hurt by high oil and that reflects more on durable goods purchases,while electronics continue to gain traction and revenue volume. I don't see a huge decline in Capex as any and all adds in equipment,wether it be capacity of technolgy have been deferred to the very last minute. Several webcast this quarter were very positive and said what we're seeing is a pent up market -people who've been out of the market for a long time have come back - because they just had to. This is far from a cycle top.This is a slow beginning. This is the stuff of consolidation.As the orders keep coming in and SCE's adhere to flat level production standards - any growth in backlog will result in pushed out delivery dates. This is a very good way to do business. If you own a stock that has the equipment that is the best - They will have nice planable production schedules with very little competition and very good margins for a protracted time. This is very healthy and the bottom line profitability at this reduced level of revenue will ultimately be rewarded by a firming in price and or change in psychology. The 03 rally will be maintained by a higher low that is very close to be put in right now. I think your selling on this rally is probably right for you. I think you trade much more to a short term strategy than I do. I like to add to on dips and over a period of several years accumulate a large position that will be easily sold of into a distribution top - a very long term plan. This 03 top wasn't at all what I look for. It didn't have that frothy fast price increase.I think that is another sign of consolidation - limited price movement. We're actually seeing a relatively fast price action now - another clue that this is consolidation. Although the indexes have hit new lows Intel is still above its recent low,could be money flow going into the next perceived sector? Cohu had a nice run up last week - pleasant surprise - maybe money flow also?? One should always expect a consolidation to end with a final shakeout. Final Shakeouts are only effective when they have influenced the majority to believe we're going to new lows. It is hard for me to buy into new lows as corporate profitability is good and getting better.(not necessarily true for the retail markets-we need to see oil drop and I think that is just around the corner). I'm still holding out hope. Bob

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