Tom, been a while .... thread seems to be picking up steam again.
Seems to me the 'chatter' is at the tops and the bottoms, but that could just be my misperception.
Not sure how the following thoughts could affect the market (particularly VTSS, AMCC, LU, CSCO, JNPR) but would appreciate your thoughts on what I see in my day to day work.
In my LAN responsibilities, and in many wide area networks, gigabit Ethernet to the desktop is the next "have-to-do" project.
I've noticed while in my end-of-fiscal-year shopping mode that Dell includes 10-100-1000 NICs built-in to many higher end machines. CAT 5e / CAT 6 infrastructure is minimum with anyone running data wire now. So, to get to GB Ethernet all we have to do swap switches (a lot of switches... <g>).
(another area)
...THAT in turn means that bandwidth needs to continue growing faster, to support the local demands.
Also increasing are the number of devices connected and connecting. It appears from my vantage point that the unit increase and thus the bandwidth increase needed is geometric rather than linear. Yes there was what seemed an unlimited capacity put down in '99 and 2000, and most growth has been metro, but it seems significant demand is just around the corner and we shouldn't really be surprised.
Since connecting to the University at 300 baud to upload programming homework in 1982, the bandwidth upgrades have seemingly been 'little bumps' rather than 'quantum jumps'.
... 300 baud > 9600 > 2400 > 28.8 > 33.3 > 56K ... 300K cable modems are still primitive!
SBC is fixing to spend $$$ for fiber to the neighborhood and Verizon fiber to the home, for a lucky few. Haven't got a clue what to do with (all) that speed, but I want it anyway.
Off the deep end? Did I swim too far out? Hole in the boat? Tell me true.
Regards,
- jk |
