Slot-in PC Card ADSL Modems?
Am not sure I entirely agree with you re. slot-in PC card adsl modems being an altogether dead end. Don't think we'll see any in '98, ... but once widespread adsl rollout begins in earnest, the viability of such a product would seem to increase...
As you point out, the interoperable line code issue is not insignificant, and it is far from clear whether the cable box (supplied by co) or telephone/tv (individually owned) is the better model for xdsl (long term)... but should adsl modems find a home on comp usa shelves, it doesn't seem too much of stretch to imagine some slot-in pc card modems right along side them. The coolness factor would be way high... it would seem to be a relatively natural next step... lots of notebooks out there... and would guess that the trend towards portable computing is increasing rather than decreasing...
Think what is interesting about this issue from an orctf investor's perspective is the licensing of orckit's ic designs to others (a new orctf strategy). Geof Hollingsworth commented on this in his post #22401 on the amtx thread :
exchange2000.com
(btw as i believe you already know, orctf has a working product on oakdspcore today: i contacted orctf and was told that the 7/15/97 press release referred to "orckit's existing adsl chip")
It would seem that the potential exists for this new licensing stategy to add (significantly?) to orctf's bottom line at some time in the future (98-99?). It is clear from recent press releases that the orctf/hrs vdsl chip and the orctf/fujitsu adsl chip will both be available commercially to others. Orctf has not announced (to my knowledge) whether their next generation hdsl silicon will also be available to others, but wouldn't be surprised if that were the case. (from the conference call: 10-12 engineers are now working on new hdsl, and news will be forthcoming "in the near future")
As to usrx being a "fierce competitor", completely agree, but don't think we'll ever see an "orctf slot-in modem" anyway... most likely this market (should it develop) will be dominated by the same players as now: usrx first and foremost. Don't see any reason why usrx wouldn't be interested in the orctf/fujitsu adsl chip, after all they (megahertz) have been using one of their arch rival's silicon (rockwell) for their current (at least as of feb. '97) slot-in products:
"...Rockwell sells its technology to dozens of modem makers, including Boca Research Inc. and Hayes Microcomputer Products Inc. -- and the Megahertz division of U.S. Robotics itself...."
iserv.net
if usrx has other plans there is always the rest of the gang: hayes, compaq, new media, tdk, visiontek etc, etc..
best wishes,
mark s.
(own a little macr too) |
