Hi Folks, here are some real warning bells. I usually don't listen to many economists and their predictions, but the economists at ECRI are the only ones I listen to, because they are extremely accurate. They believe that this isn't a soft patch, but a cyclical downturn that will last through the end of the year.
Reuters
Weekly Leading Index Update
08/06/2004
NEW YORK, Aug 6 (Reuters) - Stronger mortgage applications, and a decrease in people filing for initial jobless claims helped edge higher a leading index of the U.S. economy, a report said on Friday.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent forecasting group, said its weekly leading index (WLI) rose to 131.9 in the week ended July 30 compared with a revised reading of 131.0 in the previous week.
The index's annualized growth rate, which smooths out weekly fluctuations, dropped significantly to 0.1 percent from a revised 0.8 percent in the previous period. The growth rate hit its lowest level since the week of April 11 of last year.
"The WLI has telegraphed very clearly that the U.S. economy did not hit a "soft patch" this summer, but rather is experiencing a cyclical decline in growthm, and this is borne out by today's employment report," said, Lakshman Achuthan managing director of ECRI.
"Furthermore the WLI is telling us that this slowing will continue through year-end," Achuthan added. |
