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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 303.84+1.3%4:00 PM EST

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To: BMcV who wrote (17823)8/9/2004 12:05:32 PM
From: Return to Sender  Read Replies (1) of 95621
 
Bruce, the volatility indices are just one indicator that I follow. I think we both understand that there are many other indicators that must be factored in when making a determination of where the market has traded and where it will trade in the future.

It's well established that the normal relationship between the volatility indices is an inverse one but this year the volatility indices have continued to trade at relatively low levels even while the market declined.

Today I see the market attempting to trade higher while the volatility indices are falling back from earlier highs.

investorshub.com

It's my contention that these indicators suggest that we are positioned for a bounce. But ultimately that bounce could come from even lower levels. Especially the real long term bottom because the volatility levels can reach much higher levels. They have done in the past before a real long lasting bottom is put in and they will likely do it again in my humble opinion.

Interestingly enough the Nasdaq New Lows is already at a reading of over 500 today. That's a very high number!

finance.yahoo.com

investorshub.com

Finally, I would agree that the no indicator actually creates certain market behavior. What they do is show what type of market behavior is taking place. When extremes are reached going counter to the herd is extremely difficult. It almost always feels wrong. But when a long term bottom is reached it's not just that new buyers step in it is also that selling is almost completely exhausted.

RtS
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