big trouble for Bushy if this is true (not Iraq, economy):
Sabato said Bush's best chance to win is to focus on "hot-button social issues" and try to paint Kerry as too liberal on issues such as gay marriage, gun control, abortion and the death penalty.
summary of critical states:
Bush's best chances may be in Iowa, with seven electoral votes, and Wisconsin, with 10 electoral votes. Gore won both states by less than 1 percent over Bush. But Kerry now leads polls in both states by about 3 to 5 percentage points.
Sabato said Bush, despite early hopes, has little chance now of taking Minnesota, Michigan or Pennsylvania from the Democrats' side.
Sabato said Kerry's best chance of raiding Bush's 2000 win column is in New Hampshire, which has four electoral votes. Bush won by 7,000 votes over Gore in 2000, but Kerry leads handily in the polls now.
Sabato also said:
West Virginia, with its five electoral votes, is leaning for Kerry. Bush won West Virginia by a margin of 6.3 percent over Gore.
Florida, with its 27 electoral votes, is leaning for Kerry. Bush won the state by a margin of 537 votes over Gore.
Kerry has about a 50-50 chance of winning either Ohio, with 20 electoral votes, or Missouri, with 11 electoral votes. Bush won both states by margins of more than 3 percent in 2000.
Kerry might win Arkansas, with its six electoral votes. Bush won the state by 5.45 percent in 2000, but Sabato said former President Bill Clinton, an Arkansas native, likely will stump there for Kerry. Gore didn't seek Clinton's help there in 2000. |
