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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 301.15-1.2%Dec 31 4:00 PM EST
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To: BMcV who wrote (17905)8/10/2004 7:40:57 PM
From: BMcV  Read Replies (2) of 95657
 
Warnings from KLIC and NSM raise some interesting issues:

Though there are less drastic interpretations (KLIC notes slowing rate of semiconductor growth, not a semiconductor sales decline; NSM could well be feeling the effects of more rational ordering patterns) the chances are that today's warnings will be seen as confirming what the stock prices have been telegraphing these past six months--the cycle is over.

CSFB and others have been using strong earnings reports as evidence that the coming slowdown will come sooner rather than later. They also feel that the stocks have anticipated the slowdown and that it is too late to sell.

If the stocks were going down despite stellar earnings, maybe, they will start up in the face of disappointments.

Such a move might not have anything to do with reality. It is still quite possible that the 'long cycle" is still intact and we are simply experiencing a pause in a prolonged industry growth phase. Still, in the metaworld of stocks, we have had a full-blown downcycle, and with the results of some companies (both KLIC and NSM are seen as bellwethers) starting to turn down, the investment community may see its preconceived notions confirmed, and follow its logic to the next step.

If this all seems like positive spin, five liters of Heineken does always put me in a good mood. We'll see tomorrow how much of this "news" is already in the stocks.
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