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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 301.15

-1.2%

Dec 31 4:00 PM EST

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To: Alastair McIntosh who wrote (17915)	8/11/2004 3:25:27 AM
From: etchmeister	Read Replies (1) of 95657

In addition, flexible capacity – ie the type offered by foundries, is expected to increase even faster in 3Q. For example, in 3Q and 4Q04, UMC’s capacity will increase ~13% q/q and 7% respectively; and TSMC’s will increase 8.7% and 8% respectively, versus the ~5% q/q growth in capacity in 2Q04. 2Q04 could represent a peak in utilization for the industry. Their forecast may not be correct but so far I haven't seen anything that suggests they are wrong. well; it's hard to exceed u-rates of 106% - so calling a peak might not be rocket science - but what exactly is the conclusion of u-rates peaking in particular considering TSMC maintaining u-rates of 104%!!! (Q3) and 100% (projected for Q4) while capacity is increasing? For crying out loud : give'em their peak and nothing shall be left to fret about because once the "peak" is in nobody gives a rat's ass about their peak projections and they now must focus on a (shallow and temporary) downturn - so how deep is the bottom?

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