Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: elmatador who wrote (52202)	8/11/2004 4:53:13 AM
From: macavity	Read Replies (2) of 74559

I reduced my dollar longs but have now re-entered. I have learnt - get out fast, but set yourself targets when you want to get back in. I was away from my PC but my stop limits (USD buys) got traded in absentia. One (fundy) story is that the USD recent strength derives from the FED rise in rates. It seems that Mr G has not 'yet' changed his belief that this strategy will be followed. Maybe the Currency boys got ahead of themselves on Friday. If Mr G is bent on raising rates (or at least not lowering them) and we are to get our recession ($SPX staying below 1060) then I strongly believe it will be a deflationary one. We require confirmation still. Dollar strengthening is the last thing this market wants, needs or possibly expects. If it happens in conjunction with rising short term rates then bonds are going to explode/ long-term yields collapse. Deja Vu all over again - (Japan1990-?). - macavity

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