Milestone of 1,000th U.S. Death in Iraq Looms for Bush
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By Alan Elsner
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States faces a painful
moment probably next month when its military
deaths in Iraq are expected to surpass 1,000. It will also be a crucial
moment for President Bush , who faces a presidential
campaign in which Iraq is a central issue.
"Unfortunately that day will likely arrive next
month and it will be a fulcrum event that
may change many people's views of what
we're doing in Iraq," said David Birdsell, a
political scientist at Baruch College in New
York City.
"It's a gripping number, a large number, a
tragic number and it will be a pivot to revisit
Bush's reasons for fighting the war and his
premature declaration last year that the
mission had been accomplished," he said.
According to the most up-to-date Pentagon
(news - web sites) figure, which usually lags
events on the ground by a few days, the
United States has lost 931 military
personnel in Iraq since the war began in
March 2003.
In July, the first month after an Iraqi interim
authority took office, U.S. deaths totaled 55,
compared to 42 the previous month. So far
this month, they are running at a similar or
possibly slightly higher rate.
Compared to past wars, this is a relatively
low figure. During the Vietnam War, the
U.S. lost 1,363 soldiers in the month of
March 1968 alone and more than 58,000 for
the entire war. But it is still a higher rate
than for any military conflict the United
States has fought since Vietnam.
"The Iraqi body count hurts the president. Already less than half of
respondents in my polling say the war was worth fighting and the 1,000
casualty will be a milestone that will be page one news and put a lot
more focus on it," said pollster John Zogby.
Republican political adviser Keith Appell agreed that the 1,000th death
would be an "awful milestone" but argued that it would not change
anything in the presidential campaign.
"The Republicans will be on defense for a couple of days but I don't
expect the Bush campaign to back off anything it is saying. He needs to
stand resolute, to promise to stay the course until victory and to argue
that we have no choice but to fight this war," he said.
KERRY MAY KEEP QUIET
Conversely, Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry (news - web
sites)'s best strategy may be to confine himself to expressions of sorrow
and comfort for the families of the fallen.
"Kerry may just keep quiet. The media will probably do the job for him,"
said University of Michigan political scientist Vincent Hutchings.
The moment will likely arrive around the time when the candidates are
preparing for their crucial debates, tentatively scheduled for late
September and early October.
From the perspective of Bush's campaign, University of Georgia political
scientist Brad Lockerbie said, better the number is reached in
September than in October.
After the handover of power to the Iraqi interim government, Iraq seemed
to fade from the front pages of the U.S. media, although the death toll
continued to rise.
Now, with U.S. forces engaged in a bloody battle against radical Shi'ite
cleric Moktada al-Sadr in the holy city of Najaf in which more than Iraqi
360 militiamen and five U.S. servicemen have been killed, it is back in
the headlines.
Polls indicate that the domestic economy and Iraq are the two top
issues in the Nov. 2 election and Bush seems vulnerable on both. But
Lockerbie said opinions on Iraq had largely crystallized.
"This will be a big deal for a short period of time but
those who have decided Bush made the right decision
in going to war won't change their minds," he said. |
