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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: Hugh A who wrote (17604)8/11/2004 4:29:17 PM
From: Claude Cormier  Read Replies (2) of 110194
 
HA,

<.. but I see a 95% probability of $26 oil within two years and 50% probability within a year.>

Interesting proposition.

On what are you basing such a prediction? Cyclicity alone is not enough I think. You have to balance this factor against the fact that USD$26 dollar today is not what it was 5 years ago. It buys a lot less. You have also to factor in the enormous growing demand of Asia, demand that did not exist 5 years ago. There is also the possibility that global world production is now peaking.

I am not suggesting any future price but just suggesting that the odds do not support a return to such low prices.
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