by Micah D. Halpern
August 10, 2004
When the United States invaded Iraq they embarked on a war unlike any other they had ever fought. This is a guerilla war – fought in cities. It is a war of wits, more than warheads. It is a war in which America’s greatest weapon is her intelligence gathering. But unfortunately, intelligence gathering is also her weakest link.
As the war continues on, we are reminded, over and over again, how important intel really is. And the best way to gather intel is to share intel, and to share operational experience and practical field experience.
And in this war, there is no better friend for the United States, no better country to travel with through unfamiliar terrain – literally and figuratively, than Israel. For Israel, America’s war with Iraq is the same war they have been fighting since the creation of their state, but on a larger scale. It is West versus East, it is the culture clash endemic to the Middle East, it is a progressive society against a tribal mentality.
Israel can and should teach the US some most significant lessons - how to collect and interpret operational intel and when and how best to use intel, especially as a forerunner for attack.
Never attack with only one intel report. That is a basic tenet of intelligence gathering for wartime use. Regardless of how well placed, no matter how well connected, despite how reliable that source was in the past, do not rely on one source of information only. Do not even rely on two sources. Always have multiple, independent, corroborating intelligence sources before embarking on an attack or on any operation, let alone before planning an invasion.
Israel attacks only after having three or four independent sources of information. All the pieces, like pieces of a puzzle, must fit together and create a whole picture. Each is checked, one against the other against the other against the other so that it becomes as clear as is possible given the shady nature of sources that a mistake is as unlikely as possible to occur. And even then, mistakes sometimes do happen, they are inevitable. But checking the independence and reliability of sources is essential to any system of decision making.
Think about it! How else does Israel target a terrorist who has gone underground and resurfaced for just a few moments to visit family or attend a meeting? How do they know when a terrorist-target is sitting at his desk, which cell phone he is using, why he is turning left and not right, in which car he is traveling? Sure, there have been mishaps, attempts gone awry, but when you analyze them, very few of Israel’s mistakes have been due to poor decisions based on poor intel. Unlike the United States in Iraq.
When the United States went into Iraq, they went in on two very questionable, unchecked, sources. Not to say that the invasion was, or still is, wrong. Not to say that the motives of the United States were misrepresentative of their intent. But the entire invasion was influenced and shaped not by a network of intelligence, but by isolated reports.
The first source was a man named Ahmed Chalabi. He was the main font of intelligence and information for what was going on in Iraq. The US Defense Department paid Chalabi millions for his access and for his info. It was clear, and the US knew, that he was a problematic source, that there was a serious slant in his point of view vis a vis Iraq. But they trusted him never-the-less. Even so, despite the fact that senior US officials believed his information and insight to be good, Chalabi’s take on things should have been checked against other independent sources.
Not because he is an unsavory character. Many contacts in the intel world are unscrupulous and even immoral. That’s not the issue. The fact that Chalabi was convicted in Jordan for defrauding a Jordanian bank of millions of US dollars, or that an arrest warrant has recently been drawn up for him for counterfeiting in today’s Iraq, is also irrelevant. What is important is that intel always be checked.
The second source became clear as the result of the capture of an extremely high level operative within al Qaeda. His name is Muhamed Naeem Noor Khan, he is a 25-year old from Pakistan and, until his capture by the United States, he was the computer engineer for al Qaeda.
The information gathered on this source’s computer contained information that clarified the most significant interview and disinformation of the war in Iraq and against al Qaeda. Several years earlier a high level al Qaeda activist was captured, Ibn a Shaykh-Libi. Under interrogation Shaykh – Libi gave out information much valued by the United States. That information was given a lot of weight when the decision was made to enter Iraq. That information, again, went unchecked.
Ibn a Shaykh-Libi said that al Qaeda and Iraq had a relationship. He said that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. He said that Iraq was training terrorists. And he said that Iraq was actually assisting al Qaeda in getting the experience needed to use WMD. And then he recanted.
Shaykh –Libi now says that he just made it all up. And The 9/11 Commission Report backs this up. Well, the ripple effect of his information, of his little fib, was certainly heard and felt round the world. You just cannot take that back!
Would the US have invaded without these sources? Were they just the necessary excuse for a decision already made? One day we might know the truth. What we know now is that policies were shaped because of these unchecked, non-verified revelations. And that’s a problem.
Micah D. Halpern is a political and social commentator and syndicated columnist with expertise in the dynamics of political terrorism, Islamic fundamentalism and the Middle East. He is the author of the popular, WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT: TERROR. During the aftermath of 9/11 he was the CBS-2 NY Metro Market TV commentator on terror and the Middle East. He provides commentary, perspective and analysis on a regular basis for network and cable television and radio including FOX, ABC, CBS, MSNBC and the BBC. Micah D. Halpern has been a regular guest on Hardball, Fox & Friends and the View. A scholar and historian, Halpern has been a faculty member at Yale University; Brandeis University and Hebrew University of Jerusalem. A native of Annapolis, MD, Micah Halpern resides in New York City and Jerusalem. |
