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Technology Stocks : CDMA, Globalstar versus Iridium, Inmarsat, etc.

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To: Diogeron who wrote (253)8/24/1997 11:23:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn   of 381
 
Diogeron, Iridium can't cut its price just because it feels like it. Iridium has to spend over $4bn to get the system operational, Globalstar has to spend $2.5 bn. They can each handle only so many calls at a time, so divide their capital cost by the number of calls they can each handle. Iridium does space switching, though they have increased their ground switching. Space switching takes up satellite time and power, both expensive and limited.

The capital cost per minute of the Globalstar constellation is much much less than Iridium's. Although Iridium is now talking about $1.75 per minute, that means their business plan is already awry. You ask who knows what the gap will be in a few years? We do know - they have to cover their capital cost and make a profit. Both have to actually work, but assuming they do, the gap will not close by Iridium cutting its price. This is old ground, but worth repeating.

Iridium calls will be more expensive unless consumers prefer the Globalstar system in which case the ultimate indignity for Iridium would be that they have the more expensive system but can't sell Iridium service for as much as Globalstar can sell theirs. Maybe both will be $3 per minute due to huge demand.

Maurice
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