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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: russwinter who started this subject	8/13/2004 9:42:29 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) of 110194

Pre-Opening Corn Market Report for 8/13/2004 Corn was slightly lower in overnight trade. Funds were noted sellers of near 6500 contracts and the shift to above normal temperatures in the Midwest into early next week could ease fears over the late-maturing crops in the northern Midwest. This region, however, needs to see a warm trend into late August and early September as time (and daylight hours) are running out with the crop in some areas still 1-2 weeks behind normal. As a result, an early freeze in the region could impact final crop size. Ending stocks were pegged at 1.132 billion bushels by the USDA yesterday as compared with the average trade estimate at 1.166 billion bushels (range 1.071-1.3). This is a 10.6% stocks/usage as compared with 8.9% this season but still the second lowest in the past 8 years. There have been only 5 years of the past 34 that were tighter. While world ending stocks were higher than last month's estimate, stocks are still down from last year and the world stocks/usage came in at 12.8% from 14.3% last year which is the lowest in over 25 years. The USDA news of a bumper crop helped drive futures lower yesterday. The USDA pegged corn production at 10.923 billion bushels as compared with the average trade estimate of 10.78 billion bushels (range 10.66-10.952). Last month's production forecast was 10.635 billion bushels. Funds were noted sellers of near 6000 contracts by mid-session. Average yield was pegged at a record 148.9 bu/acre. Ending stocks were below expectations while production was higher than expected as feed usage and industrial usage was revised higher. World ending stocks for the 2004/2005 season were pegged at 85.67 million tons from 75.86 million tons last month, 92.53 million tons this year, 122.2 last year and 148 million tons two years ago. On top of the higher US crop estimate, the USDA raised China production by 5 million tons to 120 million tons from 115.8 million tons last year. Weekly export sales came in at 776,300 tons as compared with trade expectations of 700,000-900,000 tons. The 6-10 day forecast from the National Weather Service calls for below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation for the Midwest. Basis was steady. The next support for December corn comes in at 225 and then 219 1/2 with resistance at 230 1/4 and 232.

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