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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: orkrious who wrote (17666)	8/13/2004 9:55:11 AM
From: re3	Read Replies (1) of 110194

Date: Fri Aug 13 2004 09:33 trotsky (trade deficit) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved what can i say? it's getting out of control at an accelerating pace. if one looks back, as recently as 2001, a monthly deficit of below 30 billion was viewed with alarm by some people. the chart has gone parabolic, and ultimately, all parabolic charts suffer the same fate - they become the subject of an 'anti-bubble'. how does the market deal with out-of-control current account deficits? the process is well-known and has played out many times ( see the Asian crisis of '97-'98 ) . the currency of the debtor gets whacked, and a recession the depth of which is commensurate to the imbalance that needs correcting ensues. thus, the coming consumer recession will be a doozy...it needs to correct the biggest such deficit in mankind's history after all

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