Zeyad does not have good news from Najaf:
Saturday, August 14, 2004
I'am afraid to admit that most of my misgivings on the outcome of the recent military confontation with Sadr have turned out to be well-founded. The interim Iraqi government suddenly softened its approach, in large due to internal divisions, and now appears to be in a weaker position than that of Sadr.
Just a few days ago they were threatening the 'scoundrels' and 'criminals' with eradication if they did not disarm and surrender. Now, 'our brother Muqtada' will not be arrested if he leaves Najaf, and he still has the choice to particpate in the government and turn the Sadrist movement into a 'political' one, while Sadr calls them 'dictators' and offers outrageous conditions for a truce.
Negotiations continue, bringing back to mind the situation in May, allowing Al-Mahdi to regroup and stockpile ammunition and weapons to fight another day. Al-Sadr might as well announce his victory Saddam-style since he is still alive and negotiating despite his military defeat. Now he wants Najaf to turn into a 'Hawzawi protectorate' with Al-Mahdi in control, joining Fallujah, Sammara, and Sadr city as an independent safehaven for insurgents with its own local government, Sharia laws, and private courts and prisons. And the interim government is offering him that opportunity, sealing its own fate in the process.
As if the suffering of thousands of Najafis who were caught in between and the deaths of Iraqi policemen and soldiers were all in vain. As if the silent approval of Najafis and the marji'iya meant nothing. The Iraqi government has failed its first test. I know it is probably too early to say that, but that's what we also said in April and May. A 20 something year-old outlaw is free to do whatever he pleases and gets away with it just because he has a black turban on his head and can claim a couple of thousand armed followers. What kind of a farce is this? And what kind of precedent is it going to give others?
Sadr had already refused to participate in the National Conference. He doesn't need it. All he has to do is to take refuge in the sanctity of a holy Shi'ite shrine, send thousands of disgruntled young men to their death, give fiery inconsistent sermons now and then, and emerge unscathed and stronger than ever.
***
Allawi's 'emergency laws' are a joke. They might look good on paper, but who is to enforce them? Allwai says it's not time yet to implement them. Not when IP and ING's desert and swear allegiance to Al-Mahdi in Ammara and Basrah. Not when Al-Mahdi have taken over governmental offices and IP stations in Nasiriya and Diwaniya. Not when they have checkpoints and patrols using IP vehicles in Sadr city. Not when they declare their own emergency laws and a curfew in Baghdad. Not when they are lobbing mortars daily at Iraqi ministries and residential areas. Not when they can hold anyone hostage and force Iraqi officials to resign. Not when they can control the flow of oil through pipelines from the south. Not when Muqtada is al-sayyed al-qa'id. And certainly not when Allawi is just the local mayor of the Green Zone.
S.O.S.
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