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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated
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To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (60619)8/15/2004 2:04:34 PM
From: Andrew N. Cothran  Read Replies (1) of 793843
 
Poll Watchers' Delight: Dog days: What August means to November

Published August 15, 2004

Some polls show that Democratic nominees John Kerry and John Edwards got a little bump after the Democratic National Convention, but the real measure of their contest with President Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney is to come.

Big leads in August can translate into big victories in November, a look at polls across recent history shows. And the tighter the race in the dog days, the closer the margin come November.

1972
Richard Nixon (R) (Winner)
George McGovern (D)
AUGUST LEAD: 26%
VICTORY MARGIN: 23%

1976
Jimmy Carter (D) (Winner)
Gerald Ford (R)
AUGUST LEAD: 22%
VICTORY MARGIN: 2%

1980
Ronald Reagan (R) (Winner)
Jimmy Carter (D)
AUGUST LEAD: 16%
VICTORY MARGIN: 10%

1984
Ronald Reagan (R) (Winner)
Walter Mondale (D)
AUGUST LEAD: 12%
VICTORY MARGIN: 18%

1988
George Bush (R) (Winner)
Michael Dukakis (D)
AUGUST DEFICIT: 7%
VICTORY MARGIN: 8%

1992
Bill Clinton (D) (Winner)
George Bush (R)
AUGUST LEAD: 12%
VICTORY MARGIN: 6%

1996
Bill Clinton (D) (Winner)
Bob Dole (R)
AUGUST LEAD: 12%
VICTORY MARGIN: 9%

2000
George W. Bush (R) (Winner)
Al Gore (D)
AUGUST DEFICIT: 1%
VICTORY MARGIN: -0.5%*

2004
August poll
Bush: 46%
Kerry: 45%

* Bush lost the popular vote but won the electoral vote.

Note: Poll results for those with no preference, and poll and election results for third-party candidates not shown. Bush-Kerry data from a Gallup Poll of 897 registered voters nationwide conducted Aug. 9-11. Margin of error 4 percentage points.

Sources: The Gallup Organization, Congressional Quarterly's Guide to U.S. Elections, PollingReport.com
Copyright © 2004, Chicago Tribune
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