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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: TobagoJack who wrote (52387)8/18/2004 11:37:16 PM
From: Maurice Winn  Read Replies (2) of 74559
 
<CDMA is actually not making much headway in HK ... China ... Taiwan ... etc, and so it is not standard equipment in the SUV>

Jay, there is nothing but CDMA succeeding in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan in the 3G cyberspace stakes.

There might be EDGE rolled out by some service providers to try to extend the life of their legacy systems, but that will be a short-lived attempt. GPRS is also hanging in there temporarily. The physics of air interfaces and market demand for fast mobile cyberspace mean that GPRS and EDGE are already nearer the end of their lives than the beginning.

The QCOM way looks easier now, but that's after 13 years of hard graft, worry and setbacks since my introduction to it and yes, I expect dividends to be the predominant return, with P:E coming back to Earth. Gold looked a far easier proposition back then, but would have been a financial disaster in opportunity cost terms. While Uncle Al was wondering about irrational exuberance, I was buying QCOM at split-adjusted $2 a share, to top up our initial acquisition at $1.20 a share.

With QCOM now at $36, and with several yummy dividends having been paid, I think that's a better return than on gold, even if gold now goes to $3000 an ounce and QCOM stays the same as now while dividends increase. Which I don't think will happen [in regard to gold]. That is because everybody wants CDMA cyberspace [even if they don't know it yet] and all roads lead to QCOM [other than a few dead-ends and side-streets]. People like gold baubles for ornamentation, but it doesn't cause the fever that mobile cyberspace does.

I'm surprised that Lexus hasn't got CDMA cyberspace built in yet. I'm sure they have in Japan. I'll ask Google.

Mqurice
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