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GD, Oracle is way overpriced and they missed the last two eps estimates in a row. The growth has decelerated to the 30 pct. a year area, during a tech mania, and the pe ratio is in the 50s. This is obviously a mismatch, but there are many in this market. I have bought puts on this one in the past, with mixed results and a small profit, but I will definitely buy again soon. Microsoft is crossing the border on more of their markets every day. So far, ORCL has been lucky in that first Sybase and then Informix blew up on them. Now, Sybase is coming back and I expect Informix to come back. And, it is also just about Oracle's turn to blow up again, which, in this business, means getting leapfrogged by the competition. It is hard to believe, but it has only been about 3 years since everyone "knew" that Sybase was going to stomp Oracle into the ground. -g- Since the market has no sense of history, expect such thoughts again in the future, though the name may not be Sybase. MB |
