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Technology Stocks : Energy Conversion Devices

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To: Sam Citron who wrote (7789)8/20/2004 1:56:28 PM
From: jacq   of 8393
 
Sam your question is a good one beings as ECD has never produced a profit on an ongoing basis. 1996 being the last year for a profit on a windfall from litigation. It would take a very small chunk of the memory market for ECD begin making enormous profits. Tyler Lowery seems to be an excellent leader in that enterprise. You will notice how smart he is by how large a stake in Ovonyx he holds. Does he deserve it? Well he certainly has taken this division from out of the wilderness to what is beginning to look like main stream. He seems to be able to focus his talents and energies to getting the job done. BAE will begin selling rad hard memories this year. It has been mentioned that there is a sale of $25,000,000 when these units are ready to ship. That may seem pretty small that is only the very first step of a very long journey. "to infinity and beyond" - sorry I couldn't help myself - I own shares in Pixar too. Because of the huge costs to ship lead containers into outer space. PRAM will be the memory of choice in satellites for the near future. I believe that margins on this product will be substantial somewhere around 80%. I believe that this division will have the fastest payback. I also believe that flash memory will produce abundant sales in 3-4 years time if not sooner. With the price of crude hovering near $50 both the battery business and the solar business should be selling very well. Projections have always been that ECD can supply solar for $1.00 per watt once the factory is ramped to full production. I believe that fossil fuel electricity costs about $.60 per watt installed. (I.E. build the factory, build the grid) Solar is more reliable and cleaner
and performs best on those hot muggy days. As soon as the 30 Meg plant is at full capacity ( my best guess is June 2005 ) the nest plant will be 100 Meg. With one plant running and presumably profitable it should not be terribly difficult to get project specific funding, if not from a bank than from perhaps Texaco-Chevron. I have always believed that the solar company should be set up as a separate entity, people would understand what they are buying. A pure play solar underwriting would be a snap in the present economic environment.

It has been noted that Toyota is intending to produce 300,000 hybrid cars in the near future. Cobaysis has two plants in Kettering and one in Michigan. They are talking as if they have some intentions of selling their batteries to a tier 1 automotive company. Last but not least there is G.E. with their DVD-RW disc making desires.
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