SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : Investor sentiment surveys - a technical indicator
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: Sam Citron who wrote (102)8/25/1997 12:59:00 PM
From: Q.   of 167
 
Good link, Sam.

Using sentiment indicators as the only indicator for moving into and out of the marketworked nicely from 1987 up until this summer.ÿUsing them for so-called intermediate term (one-week +) decision making worked fine. But this summer it did not work well. It indicated a correction in late June, and one didn't materialize until August. The correction didn't even bring indexes back down to late June levels. I think the backtesting to 1987 just wasn't enough to demonstrate that this works.

As far as the present correction, I think it is over. The AAII index remained flat, but at least one other survey showed the % bulls dropping sharply. The put/call ratio had a peak a week ago or so that was typical of correction bottoms.

Right now, I think using these contrary indicators are ok for detecting market bottoms, but not perfect enough for timing market tops.
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News