Re: Gus - What's the probability of such attack on Iran? Is it worth the consequences?
Well... The US is not a democracy, it's a Judeo-Protestant plutocracy... US elites don't care much about oil --as I said on another thread, they mainly care about the Holy Land and the custody of Jerusalem... Bearing that in mind, let's look at the Muslim challenge to the Zionist/Israeli claim over Jerusalem: Islam is made up of Sunnis and Shi'ites. The Sunni threat/challenge to Jerusalem was dealt with and solved by F.D. Roosevelt and his successor H. Truman in the late 1940s. At that time, the US struck a deal with the Saudis --an oil-for-Jerusalem deal. It basically went like this: the Saudis give up Jerusalem (Islam's second holiest city) and, in exchange, the US will turn Saudi Arabia into its #1 oil supplier and guarantee the security of the kingdom accordingly.... That's the root, the original sin, of the Saudi dynasty: they sold out Islam (read: Jerusalem) for a zillion-dollars exclusive franchise with the US --that's bin Laden's chief grievance against the Saudi regime.
Now, who's left? The Shi'ites. Shi'ite Iran remains the last challenger to Zionism/Israel. Up to 1979, the US successfully propped up a Shi'ite version of the Saudi dynasty in Iran: somehow, the Pahlavis were Iran's Saudis. I suspect that Judeoconservatives have not given up on this scheme, that's why the son of the late Shah, Mohamed Reza Pahlavi, enjoys a growing "media exposure"...(*)
Now, you ask me about the probability of an assault on Iran? Well, lot of variables to factor in: the outcome of the coming prez election in November, the political situation in Europe, not to mention unexpected ripples far away from Iran... such as: China over Taiwan...
Gus
(*) rezapahlavi.org |
