Gartner Raises Chip Forecast;
Infineon Issues Cautious Remarks
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Research firm Gartner Inc. raised its forecast for the semiconductor market Tuesday, saying concerns about excess inventory are overblown.
World-wide semiconductor revenue is expected to reach $226 billion in 2004, a 27% increase from 2003 revenue, Gartner announced Tuesday. The Stamford, Conn., research company's previous forecast called for an increase of "more than 25%."
Gartner said chip vendors' concerns about excess supply due to a "notable increase" in inventory at the end of the second quarter are overdone. "Had the increased inventory been accompanied by a flat or even falling semiconductor market, it would have been of grave concern. In a rising market, increasing inventory levels are normal," Gartner said.
"The hangover from the severe market downturn endured in 2001 still lingers, just as concerns about the next downturn have begun to worry semiconductor industry executives," said Gartner analyst Richard Gordon in a press release. "This industry upcycle is notable in that few in the industry have felt able to acknowledge it as a boom."
Separately Tuesday, Infineon Technologies AG said it was skeptical about the potential for strong growth in the U.S. semiconductor market, but remained optimistic with its world-wide sales outlook.
The German chip maker doubts industrywide sales growth in the U.S. semiconductor market will reach the 25% to 30% it had previously expected due to the impact from high oil prices and currency moves, according to a company spokesman, although the company "still predicts a double-digit semiconductor market growth rate in the U.S." His comments confirmed a report in German daily Die Welt citing Infineon's U.S. head Robert LeFort.
The Infineon spokesman also said Tuesday that the company has become "much more positive" about the global semiconductor industry in 2004, predicting the market will exceed the earlier issued forecast of 22% growth. |
